Parkfield earthquake sequence with realistic fault dynamics

Parkfield earthquake sequence with realistic fault dynamics

Owing to recent advances in observational methods and modeling techniques, the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with predictive power may seem at reach in a foreseeable future. To explore that possibility, we build a dynamic model consisting of a fault obeying rate-and-state friction with characteristics tuned to the wealth of seismological and geodetic data available on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault.

Credits: 

Barbot S., N. Lapusta and J.-P. Avouac, "Under the Hood of the Earthquake Machine: Toward Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle", Science, 2012.