Probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard assessment for Southeast Asia

Between 2015 to 2017, we developed probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Southeast Asia from a uniform set of databases, a series of ground-shaking scenarios, and an innovative approach for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). We envision this integration of databases and approaches will be an impetus for improvements in hazard assessment and risk reduction throughout Southeast Asia. We now propose to make our assessments more valuable and reliable by increasing database quality, understanding strong-motion attenuation in terms of path and site effects, and exploring physics-based models. In addition, we will include assessments of probabilistic tsunami hazard based on our seismic models.

Seismic hazard maps of Indochina showing ground shaking (left panel) and hazard probability (right panel). These maps show the highest hazard levels in several major cities in Bago, Nay Pyi Daw, and Mandalay, central Myanmar. The map on the right shows that a lower probability of hazards does not equate to low hazards. Although any one site in the darker yellow region is less likely to experience severe shaking in comparison with that in the red region, the yellow region as a whole is more likely to experience strong shaking, because of its lower location. (Source: Chan Chung-Han)

Funding Sources: 

  • Earth Observatory of Singapore

Project Years: 


EOS Team: 

Principal Investigator


Co-Principal Investigator(s):

Chen Yue-Gao


Kyle Bradley, Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University

J Bruce H Shyu, National Taiwan University

Myo Thant, Monywa University

Pennung WarnitchaiAsian Institute of Technology

Masyhur Irsyam, Bandung Institute of Technology

Teraphan Ornthammarath, Mahidol University

Phuong Hong Nguyen and Le Minh Nguyen, Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology

Collaborating Institutes: