Time scales of volcanic unrest and dynamics of magma ascent

A good understanding of the time scales of volcanic unrest and the dynamics of magma ascent are critical for the preparedness and mitigation of eruption hazards. Monitoring data may inform us about potential magma movement and transport towards the surface. However, in many occasions there is still ambiguous interpretation about the meaning of unrest (e.g. failed eruptions). Petrological studies can inform of the processes and time scales of magma movement and ascent, and thus allow associating processes with monitoring signals. We propose to investigate several end-member cases of time scales of volcanic unrest and magmatic processes, ranging from a few weeks to a few years; these should reflect different eruption triggers and magmatic processes. We will develop conceptual models to better interpret and anticipate eruptions from end-member subduction-zone volcanoes.

Funding Sources: 

  • Earth Observatory of Singapore
  • Stephen Riady Geoscience Fund

Project Years: 

Mayon Volcano (c) Danikko Rivera

Using an approach that integrates geochemistry, mineralogy, numerical modelling, and physical models, this project aims to improve open-vent volcano forecasts in Southeast Asia.

The team uses micro and nano-analytical techniques, thermodynamics, and kinetic models to reconstruct the plumbing system and produce a time series of magmatic events leading to eruptions.

EOS Team: 

Principal Investigator



Yosuke Aoki, Earthquake Research Institute


Eisuke Fujita, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), Japan