Abstract
Following the 4 March 2010 MW 6.4 Jiashian earthquake the seismicity rate in southern Taiwan was determined to be significantly higher than before the quake and aroused seismic hazard awareness. In this work, seismic hazards were investigated in terms of earthquake activity, the Coulomb stress change, the rate-and-state friction model, and short-term seismic hazard assessments. The significantly higher seismicity rate that followed the 2010 Jiashian earthquake was found to mainly be attributed to aftershock decay, in terms of the modified Omori formula. The results suggest that aftershock duration may continue until the end of 2012. The spatial migration of seismicity was modeled using the Coulomb stress changes of large earthquakes. Most of the consequent events were distributed in the vicinity of large earthquakes. The observations corresponded to a remarkable stress increase within the same area. Additionally, large events were located within regions with stress increases promoted by previous earthquakes. The results confirm interactive relationships between large events. By considering time-dependency, the seismicity rate evolution was estimated using the rate-and-state friction model. The results indicated that a high seismic rate will persist at least until the end of 2012. Short-term probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were also applied in terms of the probability of strong ground motion. Using this application, a sudden jump in seismic hazards in southern Taiwan was accompanied by each large earthquake. At the end of 2012 it is expected that hazards will return to a background level. Our results may be valuable in the future to decision-makers and public officials engaged in seismic hazard mitigation.