Large uncertainty surrounds projections of global sea-level rise, resulting from uncertainty about future warming and an incomplete understanding of the complex processes and feedback mechanisms that cause sea level to rise. Consequently, existing models produce widely differing predictions of sea-level rise even for the same temperature scenario. Here we present results of a broad survey of 90 experts who were amongst the most active scientific publishers on the topic of sea level in recent years. They provided a probabilistic assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300 under two contrasting temperature scenarios. For the low scenario, which limits warming to <2 °c above="" pre-industrial="" temperature="" and="" has="" slowly="" falling="" temperature="" after="" ad="" 2050,="" the="" median="" ‘likely’="" range="" provided="" by="" the="" experts="" is="" 0.4–0.6 m="" by="" ad="" 2100="" and="" 0.6–1.0 m="" by="" ad="" 2300,="" suggesting="" a="" good="" chance="" to="" limit="" future="" sea-level="" rise="" to=""><1.0 m if="" climate="" mitigation="" measures="" are="" successfully="" implemented.="" in="" contrast,="" for="" the="" high="" warming="" scenario="" (4.5 °c="" by="" ad="" 2100="" and="" 8 °c="" in="" ad="" 2300)="" the="" median="" likely="" ranges="" are="" 0.7–1.2 m="" by="" ad="" 2100="" and="" 2.0–3.0 m="" by="" ad="" 2300,="" calling="" into="" question="" the="" future="" survival="" of="" some="" coastal="" cities="" and="" low-lying="" island="">
Keywords
Expert elicitation, IPCC, Survey