The Distribution of Annual Maximum Earthquake Magnitude around Taiwan and its Application in Estimation of Catastrophic Earthquake Recurrence Probability

Publication type

Journal Article

Research Area



The annual maximum earthquake magnitudes around Taiwan from 1900 to 2009 are presented in this paper. Using the distribution of the AMEM, a probabilistic framework to estimate the recurrence probability of a large-size earthquake is also proposed and an illustration was made in this paper. The mean value of the 110-AMEM is 6.433, and the coefficient of variation is around 10%. The results of two goodness-of-fit tests show that the Gamma and lognormal distributions are relatively suitable to represent the AMEM around Taiwan among five common probability distributions. Using the proposed approach, the recurrence probability is 4% for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.5 in a 1-year period around Taiwan. More site-specifically, the probability is around 5% in Central Taiwan for such an earthquake to occur in a 50-year period.

Publication Details


Natural Hazards







Date Published



Subscribe to the EOS Newsletter

Stay in touch with the latest news, events, research, and publications from the Earth Observatory of Singapore.

Email is required

Email is wrong format

You Can Make a Difference

Partner with us to make an impact and create safer, more sustainable societies throughout Southeast Asia.
Make A Gift