Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

Publication type

Journal Article

Research Area

Tectonics

Abstract





Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Tai- wan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smooth- ing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismic- ity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state fric- tion model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduc- tion earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien CitygaveaPGA(peakgroundacceleration)of0.46gfor the 2.1 ‰ annual exceedance probability. The result is simi- lar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic haz- ards were significantly elevated following the 2007 ML = 5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mecha- nismfortime-dependentprobabilisticseismichazarddeter- minations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation.

Publication Details

Journal

Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Science

Volume

13

Pagination

1143-1158

Date Published

05/2013

Identifiers

Subscribe to the EOS Newsletter

Stay in touch with the latest news, events, research, and publications from the Earth Observatory of Singapore.

Email is required

Email is wrong format

You Can Make a Difference

Partner with us to make an impact and create safer, more sustainable societies throughout Southeast Asia.
Make A Gift