Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate

TitleEvolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2021
AuthorsGarner AJ, Kopp RE, Horton BP
JournalEarth's Future
Date Published11/2021
Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre-industrial era (850-1800 CE) to the modern era (1970-2005) to the future (2080-2100 CE). Under a very high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the U.S. southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre-industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, Massachusetts, (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, Virginia (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.

DOI10.1029/2021EF002326