|Title||Reply to comment received from J.M. Gregory et al. regarding “Expert assessment of future sea-level rise by 2100 and 2300 AD”|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2014|
|Authors||Horton BP, Rahmstorf S, Engelhart SE, Kemp AC|
|Journal||Quaternary Science Reviews|
There is widespread agreement that global sea level will rise during the 21st century and beyond, but uncertainty surrounds the rate and magnitude of the rise. Horton et al. (2014) reported the results of a formal elicitation, where experts were asked to make probabilistic sea-level projections for 2100AD and 2300AD under two emissions scenarios. Here we respond to a comment provided by 9 of the 14 lead authors of IPCC WGI Chapter 13 (“Sea-level change) in Gregory et al. (2014). Gregory et al. (2014) provide a valuable discussion of differences between the 4th (Meehl et al., 2007) and 5th (Church et al., 2013a) IPCC assessment reports (AR4 and AR5), including the sea-level rise budget and possible mechanisms for a larger contribution to global sea-level rise. As experienced researchers in this field we are fully supportive of the IPCC process and the AR5 report. It is to be welcomed that the assessment emerging from our survey of expert opinion largely concurs with the AR5 report. It is important to emphasize that the purpose of Horton et al. (2014) was not to discuss the IPCC projections, but to present the results of the formal expert elicitation that we conducted. Thus, many of the criticisms made by Gregory et al. (2014) are misplaced.