Title | Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era |
Publication Type | Journal Article |
Year of Publication | 2016 |
Authors | Kopp RE, Kemp AC, Bittermann K, Horton BP, Donnelly JP, Gehrels W R, Hay CC, Mitrovica JX, Morrow ED, Rahmstorf S |
Journal | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Volume | 113 |
Start Page | E1434 |
Issue | 11 |
Pagination | E1441 |
Date Published | 03/2016 |
Abstract | We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.513.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. |
URL | http://www.pnas.org/content/113/11/E1434.full |
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1517056113 |