Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

TitleTemperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsKopp RE, Kemp AC, Bittermann K, Horton BP, Donnelly JP, Gehrels W R, Hay CC, Mitrovica JX, Morrow ED, Rahmstorf S
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume113
Start PageE1434
Issue11
PaginationE1441
Date Published03/2016
Abstract

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P0.95P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.513.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

URLhttp://www.pnas.org/content/113/11/E1434.full
DOI10.1073/pnas.1517056113