Driving mechanisms of past and present sea-level change to quantify projection uncertainties

Project Overview

The limited instrumental and paleo sea-level reconstructions in Singapore and Southeast Asia hinder the interpretation of sea-level change on global, regional and local scales and limit the possibilities to tune and refine models that predict future changes and their spatial variability. We will develop new records of relative sea-level (RSL) change from mangrove environments and coral microatolls to extend the instrumental records from satellite altimetry and tide gauges. The new regional RSL dataset spanning the last ~2000 years (Common Era) will capture multiple phases of climate and sea-level behaviour for model calibration, provide a pre-anthropogenic baseline for assessing recent trends, and characterize natural variability. To estimate global sea level and the spatio-temporal field of Singapore and Southeast Asia, the new RSL datasets will be combined with satellite altimetry and tide-gauge measurements in an empirical Bayesian statistical framework. The proposal is grouped into four stages and aims to:

1. Develop new paleo RSL reconstructions from mangrove environments and coral microatolls to extend instrumental records from tide gauge and satellite altimetry data in Singapore and Southeast Asia. 
2. Use paleo and instrumental RSL datasets to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of RSL changes.
3. Apply statistical modelling techniques to identify the driving mechanisms of RSL change.
4. Quantify the uncertainty in past and present-day sea-level changes for future projections.

Funding Sources

• National Sea Level Programme
• National Environment Agency

Project Years

 2021 to 2025